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PROP WIZARDA numbers based method to profitable sports betting

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7 days free Cancel anytime Every result publicly tracked
Units profit
Return on units staked
Win rate
Picks graded
Estimate your monthly profit
Average monthly profit
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A unit should be 1% of your bankroll. This assumes you take every bet we send, at the odds and units we provide. The monthly average is calculated from the completed months of data. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Performance

Every graded pick in the order it was sent, in units.

Cumulative profit by bet number
Mission statement

To put some of the money Australians lose to bookmakers back into the pockets of everyday punters, by only betting when the price is on our side.

Who we are

The Prop Wizard model creator is an engineer with an analytical mindset. He thought that if sports books can manufacture long term profits, then we should be able to reverse engineer the process and flip the odds in our favour.

How it works

We calculate what the fair odds on a range of sporting events should be with our model. Then when we find a sports book offering more than this, we send an alert to our private Whop chat.

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FAQ
Questions we get asked
Is this financial advice?

No. This is a statistical service built on publicly available information. Nothing here is financial advice, and results are not guaranteed. Sports betting carries risk, so never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Do you win every pick?

No, and you shouldn't expect us to. A hit rate under 50% can still be profitable long term when the odds and the edge line up. That is the nature of the maths. We optimise for long run expected value, not a perfect record, and the results log is not cherry picked.

What sports are covered?

NBA, WNBA, NBL, MLB, NHL, NFL and AFL player props.

How do I get the picks?

Picks go out through a private channel on Whop. Create a free Whop account, subscribe to our page, and you're in. Access is automatic, so you receive every pick we find. We scan the markets each morning and night and send a message accordingly.

Do I need to be an experienced bettor?

No. Each pick includes the odds, the bookmaker, and a suggested unit size, so you can act on it even if you're new to value betting.

Get the next picks in your chat.

Try every pick free for 7 days. If it is not for you, cancel before the trial ends and you pay nothing.

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18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.
Disclaimer. Numbers on this page come straight from our own results log and update automatically. Nothing is deleted or hidden from the log after it is sent to the private group. Past results don't guarantee future ones, and this page is informational and for entertainment purposes only, not financial advice. You must be 18+ to use this service. If gambling becomes a problem, help is available at gamblinghelponline.org.au or on 1800 858 858.
Mission Statement

Australians lose more on gambling than anyone else on earth.
We want some of it back.

Every year, Australians hand billions of dollars to bookmakers, much of it on prices that were never fair to begin with. Prop Wizard exists to change that, one correctly priced bet at a time.

The size of the problem
A national scoreboard nobody wants to top
$31.5B

lost by Australians on all forms of gambling in 2022/23, the highest figure in two decades.

$1,527

lost for every adult in the country that year. No nation loses more per person.

$8.4B

lost on sports and race betting alone, a figure that has grown by almost half since 2018/19.

No.1

Australia's world ranking for gambling losses per person, ahead of every other country.

Sources: Australian Gambling Statistics, Queensland Government Statistician's Office (2022/23, real terms), as reported by the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare; H2 Gambling Capital.
How the bookmaker wins
It is not about who wins. It is about the price.

A bookmaker does not need to know the result of a game. It only needs to set the odds. Take a simple coin toss. The fair price on each side is $2.00, because each side wins half the time. A bookmaker will offer $1.87 on both, a margin of 6.7%.

Two punters put $100 each on opposite sides. Whoever wins gets $187.40 back: their own $100 plus $87.40. The other $12.60 goes to the bookmaker, whichever way the coin lands. That is $12.60 kept on every toss, without ever caring who wins.

Across thousands of bets, that margin does the heavy lifting. Picking plenty of winners is not enough. If you keep accepting prices below fair value, the maths catches up with you in the end.

Our answer
Turn the margin around.

Bookmakers set thousands of player prop prices every day, and they do not get all of them right. Our model works out what each market should be priced at, then scans Australian bookmakers for prices sitting above that line.

When the bookmaker has made the mistake, the margin works for you instead of against you. We only send a pick when that gap is big enough to matter, and we pass on everything else.

It is the same maths bookmakers rely on, pointed the other way.

Bookie margins vary, this is just an illustration
Part 1 · The fair price
Start with a coin flip
Heads
2.00
50% chance
$
Tails
2.00
50% chance

At fair odds of 2.00, a $100 wager returns $200 half the time and $0 the other half. Play forever and nobody comes out ahead. A sportsbook offering this price would make nothing.

Part 2 · The margin
So the book shaves the price
Heads
2.00
implies 50.0%
Tails
2.00
implies 50.0%
Heads
Tails
100% (fair value)
106.7% (overround)
Book keeps 6.3%

Odds of 1.87 imply a 53.35% chance for each side. Add them up and you reach 106.7%, but a coin only has 100% to give. That extra 6.7% is the margin. To fit it in, the book pays each side less than its fair half and keeps 6.3% of everything wagered.

Part 3 · The balanced book
Whoever wins, the book wins
Alex
$100 on Heads @ 1.874
Takes in
$200
Pays out $187.40
+$12.60
kept, every time
Jo
$100 on Tails @ 1.874

The book does not need to predict anything. With money on both sides it keeps 6.3% of everything wagered. The users are betting against each other and the book charges the toll.

Part 4 · The long run
Luck fades. The margin stays.
Wagers per user
0
Users in front
0
Average user
$0
Margin · odds

This graphic is a theoretical distribution of 100 different people placing 2,000 wagers each at a margin of −6.7%. It is an illustration to show that the long run removes the variation in luck over time.

Now flip it
So how do you stop losing to the bookie?
The average punter
≈ −6.3%
the margin works against them
so they lose over the long term
→
The Prop Wizard way
…
margin in your favour
value over the long term

You have seen how the margin grinds the average punter down. Next we illustrate how the Prop Wizard method finds long term value, so the same maths works for you instead of the bookie.

Part 5 · The crack in the wall
Not every price is a bad price
Our model's fair price
2.00
the true 50% chance, no margin
Price offered
1.87
below fair · book keeps 6.3%
✕ PASS
Price offered
…
above fair · … edge to us
✓ WAGER

Most prices have the margin working against you. Now and then a price sits above the fair price. On that wager the margin has flipped and the book is the one paying the toll.

Part 6 · The Prop Wizard way
Only wager when the price is on your side
1
Find the fair price

Our model finds the fair price on every event we look at.

2
Only wager with an edge

We take a wager only when the price is in our favour and is actually giving us an edge. Everything else is a pass.

3
Stake small, repeat

One unit is 1% of your bankroll. Small stakes over hundreds of wagers let the edge do its work while luck washes out.

It is the same maths the sportsbook relies on. The only change is which side of the margin you stand on.

Part 7 · Our record to date
Same stakes. Three very different results.
Settled picks
0
Our profit to date
–
Our return on units staked
–
Ahead of the average punter
–
Our actual return on units staked to date … · every settled pick, losses included

The green line is our historical results log of … settled picks, losses included, which has returned … on units staked to date. The red dashed line is a theoretical comparison: what the same stakes would be expected to return for the average punter, who loses approximately 6.3% of every wager (bookie margin varies). The chart ends at our latest settled pick. It shows what has already happened and is not a forecast or estimate of future returns. Past results do not guarantee future profit. Only wager what you can afford to lose.

What we stand for
Four rules we do not break
Price, not opinion

We never bet because a player is in form or a team is due. We bet because the price is wrong, and for no other reason.

Discipline over excitement

One unit at 1% of your bankroll. No doubling up, no multis chasing a big payday, no chasing a bad week.

Everything on the record

Every pick is logged publicly, including every loss. Judge us on the full record, not a highlight reel.

Built for the long run

Value shows up over hundreds of bets, not one weekend. We would rather be steady and right than loud and lucky.

Our mission
To put some of the money Australians lose to bookmakers back into the pockets of everyday punters, by only betting when the price is on our side.
Prop Wizard
Betting with your eyes open
This is a smarter way to bet, not a reason to start.

Prop Wizard is built for adults who already bet and want a disciplined, price first approach. If you do not bet, nothing here should change that.

Even a winning strategy has long losing stretches, so only ever bet money you can comfortably afford to lose. If it stops being fun, step away.

Free and confidential support is available around the clock through Gambling Help Online on 1800 858 858, and you can exclude yourself from every licensed Australian bookmaker through BetStop.

Bet on price, not hope.

See how the model performs for yourself. Your first 7 days are free.

Start your 7 day free trial
18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.
An engineer's answer to gut feel tipping.

The Prop Wizard model creator is an engineer with an analytical mindset, working full time and following sport closely on the side.

He thought that if sports books can manufacture long term profits, then we should be able to reverse engineer the process and flip the odds in our favour.

A bookmaker's edge comes from pricing, not from picking winners. So the model does the same thing in reverse: it works out what the fair odds on an event should be, and only flags a bet when a bookmaker is offering more than that.

Once the model had proven itself over the long term, the next step was to share it, so other punters could find value they would otherwise have no way of seeing.

What we believe
  • 01We don't pretend to win every pick.
  • 02We take prices that are better than they should be. Over time this has been creating profitable bets for our members.
  • 03That behaviour, applied consistently over time, is what has produced a profitable track record.
  • 04Full transparency. Every pick is logged automatically, including the losses.
Live results, pulled straight from the log
Performance
Every graded pick, the profit it produced, and how each sport has performed. Updated automatically from the results log.
Units profit
Return on units staked
Win rate
Picks graded
Days running
Avg P/L units per day
Avg odds
Avg picks per day
Cumulative profit by bet number
Profit by month
ROI by sport
Sport
Bets
ROI
A track record you can check yourself
Most tipsters post screenshots of their wins. We publish everything, and the page you are reading is built straight from it.
Logged before the game

Every pick is recorded in our log before it starts, and only appears here once it has been graded, so nothing can be added after the result is known.

Every loss stays in

Wins, losses, pushes and voids are all recorded. Nothing is edited or deleted after it is sent, so the totals above include the bad days too.

Updated automatically

The charts and stats on this page read directly from our results log. No manual edits, no selected highlights.

See every pick
Nothing hidden
Every pick we have ever sent.
Choose the day you would have joined.
Each square is one settled pick from our public log, in the order it was sent. Green won, red lost. Tap any square, or drag the slider, and the numbers restart from that pick.
Loading the results log…
WinLossBefore your start
Joined at the first pick
–
what the log has returned from that pick to today
Picks since–
Record–
Return on units staked–
Longest losing run–
Your unit size
At $10 a unit, that stretch of the log returned –
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Historical results from our public log, losses included. This is not a forecast or estimate of future returns. Past results do not guarantee future profit. Only wager what you can afford to lose.
Full results log
Every graded pick, newest first
The complete log, losses included. Follows the sport filter above. Bookmakers are shared with members only.
DateSportMatchPlayerMarketOddsUnitsResultProfitBookie
Loading the results log…
Find market mispricings. Execute before the line moves.
  1. We research upcoming events to work out what the true odds of each betting market should actually be.
  2. We look for spots where the bookmaker has made a pricing error and is offering value to anyone who can find it.
  3. We model the win probability and the expected value to set the unit size that gets the most out of the model.
  4. Once the highest value bets are confirmed, along with their stake sizes, we send them to the private group chat so members can place them.
  5. Value prices rarely last long, so we recommend acting on each pick as soon as it arrives.
Picks go out through a private channel on Whop. Create a free Whop account, subscribe to our page, and you're in. Access is automatic, so you receive every pick we find. We scan the markets each morning and night and send a message accordingly.
The Edge Engine
Multiple sports analysed. Only a few picks clear our filters.
Every morning and night the model prices every player prop line it can find. Almost all of them favour the bookmaker. Watch how we pluck out the few that don't, what ends up in your chat, and how every pick adds to our public record.
01Analyse
02Pluck
03Rank
04Send
05Track
The Prop Wizard analyses upcoming events across Australian bookmakers
Find the value

Every price implies a chance. When our estimate of the true chance is higher than the chance the bookmaker's price implies, the bet has positive expected value. Move the sliders to see how it works.

55%
Our estimated chance of 55% implies a true price of $1.82
$2.00
Bookmaker's odds suggest an implied chance of 50.0%
Price comparison (odds in dollars)
Bookmaker $2.00
True price $1.82
$1.00$2.00$3.00$4.00$5.00
+10.0%
Illustration only to explain the concept of our strategy. Performance of individual bets varies.
Inside the membership
What lands in the Daily Picks chat

Every pick comes ready to place: the player, the market, the best odds we found, the bookmaker offering them and a suggested stake. Nothing to work out yourself.

  • US sport picks around 7:00am and 8:30pm AEST
  • AU sport picks generally land within 2 hours of game time
  • Stakes sized in units, with 1 unit at 1% of your bankroll
Get the next picks free
# Daily Picks Latest graded picks
Our latest graded picks, straight from the public log. New picks stay private to members until they are graded.